Remember the 2008 Kansas Huckaboom — the Kansas GOP presidantial primary caucus in which former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee received 60% of the vote? A new poll showing Huckabee currently leading the pack nationally shows we may just have been ahead of our time. True, Sarah Palin wasn’t on the list of choices in 2008, as she is in the new polls, but just the same:
Heads up bellwhether watchers!
Friday, October 16, 2009
Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Republican voters nationwide say former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is their pick to represent the GOP in the 2012 Presidential campaign. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 24% prefer former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney while 18% would cast their vote for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets 14% of the vote while Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty gets 4%. Six percent (6%) of GOP voters prefer some other candidate while 7% remain undecided.
These numbers reflect an improvement for Huckabee since July when the three candidates were virtually even. Huckabee’s gain appears to be Palin’s loss as Romney’s support has barely changed.
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The numbers for Huckabee and Romney look even stronger when GOP voters were asked which candidate they would least like to see get the nomination. Pawlenty came on top in that category with 28%. Palin was second at 21% while 20% named Gingrich. Romney and Huckabee were in the single digits with 9% and 8% respectively.
Huckabee and Romney are viewed favorably by 78% of Republican voters, Palin by 75%. Gingrich earns favorably reviews from 69% while Pawlenty is less well known and gets a positive assessment from 45% of Republicans.
Other data from the survey, including head-to-head match-ups with individual candidates, will be released over the weekend.
Republican voters are very confident their nominee could be the next President of the United States. Eighty-one percent (81%) of the GOP faithful say that it’s at least somewhat likely the Republican nominee will defeat Barack Obama in 2012. Fifty percent (50%) say it’s Very Likely.
Romney leads all prospects among voters who attend church once a month or less. Huckabee leads among more frequent churchgoers. Huckabee holds a huge lead among Evangelical Christians with Palin in second and Romney a distant third. Huckabee and Romney are essentially even among other Protestants while Romney has the edge among Catholics.
Romney leads among Republicans earning more than $75,000 a year while Huckabee leads among those who earn less.
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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
This national telephone survey of 750 Likely 2012 GOP Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 15, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence (see methodology).